By Eric Kuo, Caelux
The Asian photovoltaic (PV) industry is on the threshold of a new phase, one defined not by capacity racing and brutal price wars but by strategic transformation. Based on current geopolitical and market trends, we can view the period from 2026 to 2028 as the “Structural Reshaping Phase”. This will be realized through a market shift towards competition driven by technological differentiation, supply chain localization, and grid absorption capability.
This next phase presents an opportunity for new technology and business models across different regional markets and Caelux’s perovskite technology is well-positioned to play a pivotal role. In this blog, we look at the impact that perovskite-silicon tandem technology can have in two focus regions driving solar expansion: Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia. We make the case that to succeed in the coming years, companies will need to make strategic business decisions in accordance with the shift from the previous path of “total volume growth” to one of “regional differentiation.”
Diving into Regional Markets
Several key factors inform our analysis and trend forecasting. Around the world, we are seeing the ripple effects from escalating trade decisions and tensions with the United States. This presents key challenges and strategic opportunities to localize supply chains, build domestic capacity, and develop innovative partnerships. The Southeast Asian PV industry, in particular, has been focused on addressing these same concerns for several years now. As a result, we are seeing a steady stabilization of the supply chain across the region, as well as key policies designed to stimulate local growth. In Northeast Asia, on the other hand, the proliferation of high-efficiency technologies such as Hybrid-Tandem™ modules and HJT cells are helping unlock land-constrained markets.
Consider Figure 1, which illustrates forecasted gigawatt demand across the two regions. These numbers tell a larger story of transformation at a time when a major western market is contracting. Each region is entering this phase from a different starting point but converging on a common theme of growth. High-efficiency solar powered by perovskite-silicon tandem technology can further accelerate this growth by providing lower levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for projects using the tech. Southeast Asia, the current volume leader, is driven by manufacturing relocation and island electrification, while Northeast Asia represents slower but high value growth. The jump in demand from 2027 to 2028 is based upon the “tech dividend” that tandem technologies will yield and validates the thesis of perovskite technology.
Unlike the saturated market in China, these regions have distinct drivers and opportunities for perovskite technologies to flourish.
Southeast Asia (SEA): From “Transit Hub” to “Demand Center”
Southeast Asia is pivoting from being a mere export springboard to the United States (for companies trying to avoid tariffs) towards satisfying growing domestic demand. The recent implementation of the Direct Power Purchase Agreement (DPPA) decrees (No. 57/58) in Vietnam enables major manufacturers to purchase renewable energy directly from generators while breaking the monopoly of EVN (Vietnam Electricity). As a result of the DPPA policy implementation, we anticipate that stalled projects will restart, and the commercial and industrial rooftop market will realize new gains. While Hybrid-Tandem™ modules’ step-function improvement in efficiency work well for utility-scale power projects, it is in these constrained rooftop applications where the technology really shines. Within a year, tandem technology will allow a given rooftop to generate up to 30% more power over conventional solar modules. In a few years out, that gain will be even greater. In Indonesia the relaxation of TKDN (local content requirements) will allow for new flexibility around large-scale activation, such as the PLTS (Solar Power Plant) project. This stands in stark contrast with the previous operating environment, where strict rules choked foreign investment. We anticipate this to drive an increase in large-scale ground-mounted and floating PV in the Java-Bali grid, which will likewise drive increased power and cost savings.
Overall, due to U.S. AD/CVD risks, continued shifts in the PV supply chain will continue. The manufacturing capacity in Thailand and Malaysia will pivot to serve India, the Middle East, and local markets. Taken together, these changes form the foundation for a more resilient and diversified solar supply chain in Southeast Asia. Caelux’s technology creates opportunities for manufacturers to extend the life of their factories and upgrade their product offerings to compete with newer cell types without making huge capital investments. Our first-generation technology brings the performance of PERC cells to TOPCon efficiency levels or higher. It also provides a method for differentiation in a commodity-filled market. This is particularly useful for manufacturers in Vietnam and Malaysia that need to differentiate from mainland Chinese mass production. Caelux enabled modules will provide opportunities for these manufacturers to export to premium markets in the region such as Singapore and Australia at higher margins, escaping the “Red Ocean” price war of standard PERC/TOPCon modules.
Northeast Asia (NEA): Tech Premium via Grid Bottlenecks
In Japan, land scarcity is shifting the focus away from price wars to technology and interconnection battlegrounds. The country has a massive stock of aging, low-efficiency PV stations installed during the 2012-2015 FIT boom. In addition, severe grid congestion and curtailment has started in Kyushu and is spreading nationwide. Based on these challenges, PV + storage integrated solutions have become mandatory rather than optional. With flat land exhausted, the market is favoring repowering (replacing old panels) and lightweight or wall-mounted PV.
This represents a key opportunity for Caelux’s perovskite technology: replacing legacy panels with high-efficiency perovskite-tandem modules could double output without expanding the footprint. Caelux technology will give local assemblers (e.g., OEM partners) to the means to produce valuable high-efficiency modules, further driving the repowering trend. Developers can replace old 250-300W panels with 650-750W+ tandem modules without replacing expensive racking, and infrastructure, effectively doubling the FIT revenue of these projects.
This model can be used in South Korea as well, where grid delays are limiting the deployment of ground-mounted projects. Since land is limited, the strategy is to maximize output per square meter. In addition, RE100 corporate demand remains the key driver for major business decisions. As a result, solar stakeholders are betting heavily on perovskite-silicon tandem solutions. Customizable light transmission and aesthetics (uniform black appearance) can help meet strict Korean urban building codes for building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) The high value and cost savings that tandem solutions yield can unlock viability for BIPV and capture the high-end industrial rooftop market, where power density (W/m²) is the only metric that matters.
The Caelux Differentiator: “Perovskite-on-Glass” – Perovskite/Silicon Tandem
Unlike perovskite-on-silicon cell solutions, commonly known as 2T that require new cell production lines, Caelux utilizes a perovskite-on-glass strategy. Our solution provides a step-function change for the solar industry from an efficiency, cost, and product perspective. Caelux acts as a “Drop-in Solution” for module manufacturers, who simply replace the front glass of their existing crystalline silicon modules (Perc/TOPCon/HJT/BC) with Caelux’s active glass to upgrade them into high-efficiency tandem modules. In the capital-constrained environment of 2026-2028, this offers a critical strategic advantage, high-tech upgrades with minimal to no new CAPEX required. Caelux technology allows existing manufacturers to extend the useful life of their solar cell factories by boosting efficiency. This flexibility makes Caelux the ideal partner for the 2026–2028 transformation cycle.
These numbers translate into real-world economic benefits across Asia’s diverse markets, offering lower LCOE in regions that already yield cost savings for manufacturers. The delta between conventional silicon modules and Caelux-enabled perovskite-silicon Hybrid-Tandem modules creates a unique competitive advantage that can benefit each regional market. Overall, Caelux’s Active Glass solution stands out as a powerful enabler of energy density and yield while keeping cost per watt down.
Supply Chain Dynamics
We see continued regionalization of the supply chain in 2026 coupled with vertical integration for cost control. Caelux’s technology and business model fits well with these shifts.
- “China + N” Strategy:To minimize geopolitical and trade risks from the U.S. (OBBBA) and EU resolutions, Chinese firms will be aggressively expanding overseas and diversifying their production bases to create localized strategies.
- Middle East (Saudi Arabia): Meanwhile, the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia in particular, will become the new hub for polysilicon and wafer production.
- Turkey: Turkey will become the new hub for module assembly for the European market.
- Laos/Indonesia: In addition, Laos and Indonesia will see the creation of new low-cost processing bases, replacing Vietnam.
- Critical Bottleneck: Silver Paste. A critical pressure point will be the availability of silver paste, as n-type cell technologies (TOPCon and HJT) dominate. With over 80% market share, silver demand will spike and force the industry towards copper plating or low-silver metallization by 2027.
Caelux’s provides manufacturer’s an opportunity to reduce risk with regional manufacturing investments and hedge against increasing material costs.
Conclusion
Caelux’s vision is simple but transformative: enhance, not replace. With Caelux, Asian solar manufacturers can move not just towards more capacity but towards higher value capacity. Our perovskite technology is the “golden key” for regions looking to move up the value chain in the coming years. In every region, Caelux technology lowers balance of system (BOS) costs, reduces land use, reduces construction costs, and accelerates returns on invested capital — creating a clear value chain upgrade for each market.
By embedding perovskite innovation directly into the supply chain, Caelux empowers manufacturers of all sizes to compete and differentiate without billions in new capital expenditure. This high-efficiency solar technology will define the next phase of Asia’s PV growth — making the Structural Reshaping Phase (2026–2028) less volatile and more profitable.
